The joust in on: Conflicting polls and pollsters ahead of tonight’s debate.

By Ian Capstick · September 24, 2015

The Media Narrative

Get your crackerjacks ready! It’s inside baseball day on the campaign trail or as we say it on French debate day, “le jour de baseball intérieur”. Not really, but that’s what Google Translate says. They’re working on it.

It’s a down day on the campaign and this means there’s plenty of time for speculation and polls.

Here are the polling stories that data politicos will be poring over today:

The polls are conflicting and the pollsters themselves are in conflict. Pundits, online and off, are eating it all up. Expect a rough and tumble partisan day on social media as parties scramble to set expectations for their leaders ahead of tonight’s debate.

Where do the polls and the opinions leave us today?

David Akin summed it up best in his column:

“Is a Harper minority a likely possibility? Yes. After looking at various regional polls and after discussions with partisans working for all sides, I calculate that Harper’s Tories would today win about 124 seats in our newly enlarged 338-seat House of Commons. That’s nowhere close to the 170 seats needed for a majority. But now, Mulcair and Trudeau, in lockstep, say that unless Harper gets 170 seats, they’ll depose him.”

Tonight’s debate will see Mulcair in the middle of the field again, both figuratively and literally. My only comment on tonight’s debate is that it could mean everything or nothing. There is no in between for the leaders in Quebec. By this time next week we will know much more about the political climate in the province.

Selected Headlines

Top Column Today

Chantal Hébert’s column is a must read today. She suggests Mulcair has more to lose than gain in tonight’s French-language debate.

A full collection of election opinions worth reading can be found on National Newswatch.

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