The joust in on: Conflicting polls and pollsters ahead of tonight’s debate.· September 24, 2015
Get your crackerjacks ready! It’s inside baseball day on the campaign trail or as we say it on French debate day, “le jour de baseball intérieur”. Not really, but that’s what Google Translate says. They’re working on it.
It’s a down day on the campaign and this means there’s plenty of time for speculation and polls.
Here are the polling stories that data politicos will be poring over today:
- Conservatives swing into lead, close in on majority government, new poll suggests
- Strategic voting group releases new riding polls but hard data remains elusive
- Ontario looks like a Tory-Liberal battle: Mainstreet poll
- New poll has Liberals ahead of Conservatives in Mount Royal; NDP ahead in Ahuntsic-Cartierville
- National race a toss-up for 14th straight day
The polls are conflicting and the pollsters themselves are in conflict. Pundits, online and off, are eating it all up. Expect a rough and tumble partisan day on social media as parties scramble to set expectations for their leaders ahead of tonight’s debate.
Where do the polls and the opinions leave us today?
David Akin summed it up best in his column:
“Is a Harper minority a likely possibility? Yes. After looking at various regional polls and after discussions with partisans working for all sides, I calculate that Harper’s Tories would today win about 124 seats in our newly enlarged 338-seat House of Commons. That’s nowhere close to the 170 seats needed for a majority. But now, Mulcair and Trudeau, in lockstep, say that unless Harper gets 170 seats, they’ll depose him.”
Tonight’s debate will see Mulcair in the middle of the field again, both figuratively and literally. My only comment on tonight’s debate is that it could mean everything or nothing. There is no in between for the leaders in Quebec. By this time next week we will know much more about the political climate in the province.
- CBC: Unifor, autoworkers want Tory candidates to state views on Trans-Pacific Partnership
- Canadian Press: Mulcair calls for tolerance, calm on niqab controversy ahead of French debate
- Canadian Press: Change is important, former Alberta premier Redford says of federal election
- Canadian Press: Top Democratic organizer praises Mulcair, says only he can beat Harper
Chantal Hébert’s column is a must read today. She suggests Mulcair has more to lose than gain in tonight’s French-language debate.