During this election I tried to analyze and not spin. I approach each opportunity to comment as a chance to explain how politics works. I think the more we know about the system the better. I’m one of the few who believes so-called “process stories” are important – mechanics of campaigns are fascinating and young people like to read and see behind-the-scenes accounts. It’s one of the reasons The West Wing was so popular.

Over the next few weeks I’ll be writing a lot about the lessons I learned during this campaign.

My biggest error this campaign? I couldn’t resist trying to predict things. Which, as Dan Gardner is wont to point out, is a very bad idea. Talking heads are often wrong.

Reflection on analysis is important. I think these are my worst offenders.

Ian’s top three missed calls of election 2011

3) “The NDP will not win 60 seats in Quebec.” I think this was a case of managing my own internal expectations. When the numbers started coming on strong in Quebec after the debates, I recalled an interesting phenomena in Quebec called “the ballot box switch” – while I was quiet about why I thought the numbers were inflated – this was my thinking. Wow, was I wrong.

2) “We aren’t going to see an anti-incumbency tide sweep over Canada. I just don’t think that’s realistic.” The reporter from the National Post was right about this. I pushed back pretty strongly on the notion that the vote for the NDP was a protest vote or related to the oft-cited Ford/Nenshi mayoral wins in Toronto and Calgary respectively. I was pretty wrong about this one too, eh. The Ipsos “exit polling” I was seeing on election day convinced me I far from nailed this one.

1) “Elizabeth May has run the most narcissistic campaign in Canadian electoral history. In ten years, the Greens will look back on this as the beginning of the end.” On this I owe the Green Party and Elizabeth May a massive apology. I am sorry I was jerk, because I wasn’t only dead wrong here, I was pretty damn harsh about it too. This is where my partisan nature got the best of me. I’ll be blunt: Greens bugged me a lot when I was working for the NDP. I’m not sure why, it’s rather illogical. I’m coming around. Congratulations to the Greens on electing their first MP – she truly does deserve it. (In fact, the Green Party deserves 3.9% of the seat, but I’ll leave voting reform for another post.)

What other calls did I make that didn’t pan out? Did you misjudge the 2011 election?

The live chat and more details can be found here. Join in!

What a wild ride this election has been.

I’ll admit, it’s been really tough not being on the front lines in the New Democrats war room this campaign. I don’t miss the 16-hour days, but I do miss the camaraderie that built around the team. My hat is off to all of the crew at the national campaign and in the ridings all across Canada. This is it.

Today I’ll be blogging, tweeting and photographing up a storm as I take to the set at Global National. I’m really proud to be joining the Global election night team and I look forward to hearing from you!

I’ll be checking into this posts comments, on the Global live blog and of course, my Twitter account for your ideas and insight that I can use on the broadcast. My goal is simple: I want to be the most digitally engaged pundit tonight.

Readers, Twitter friends and live blogging companions… you are the key to making it work!

Today’s MediaStyle election coverage will appear in this post, with the latest content appearing at the top.

Travis Boisvenue will be taking part in an OpenFile election live chat tonight at 9:30. Follow it and join in right here.

History on the Run: The Media and the ’79 Election: This documentary examines the media’s coverage of the federal election of May 1979. Filmed over a 3-week period, it takes a fascinating look at journalists in action and the politicians who attempt to manipulate the media.

Update #1: Below is the replay of last nights live blogging goodness.

Update #2: The award for best, fastest and most amusing debate night critique has to go to Joe Boughner. I’ll let his kick ass video speak for itself.

At some point Canadian media collectively stopped talking about “undecided voters” when reporting polls. The over 20% people who can’t make up their mind aren’t plotted on graphs. They don’t have as many features written about them. TV time is waning for people without a hard-and-fast opinion.

In this rush to sort out who is going to win an election we are barely a week into, are the pollsters and media who report polls beginning to wag the dog, even just a little?

When corporations and organizations poll on issues and product/brand loyalty: a lot time is spent examining the people who didn’t have a firm point-of-view. In internal political polling undecided numbers are of critical importance to strategy.

Standard practice is to inform viewers polls are only accurate 19 times out of 20 and pony up the statistical margin of error (usually around +/- 3.5%). Yet, then we pretend like the numbers add up to 100% (leaving people to do mental math if they want to know how many people can’t decide yet). One-step-worse, some go so far as to drop the undecideds all together – reporting only the choices of decided voters.

At this stage in the election, “undecided” is a legitimate option for a lot of Canadians. (It kind of worries me when pollsters report that over 80% of people have made up their minds, are the questions designed to elicit a response? Did they give “undecided” as an option?)

This is my challenge to Canada’s pollsters. Put the undecided voter back in the mix. Prompt for it. Report it. And then make sure your media partners include it in their reports.

Photo credit

Journalists on the campaign trails are reporting “coalition fatigue” with 34 days left to go. There are already signs it’s wearing thin on the people who set the daily news agenda.

But the silver lining is that all of this naked politicking has left everybody a bit of breathing room to catch up after last Friday’s contempt-confidence combo triggered the 2011 campaign. Are you and your organization ready for election 2011?

Five-key election readiness questions for non-profits, unions and NGOs

1. News moves a mile a minute during an election. The standard news-cycles are shorter, crisper and more prone to wild swings. How are you and your team staying on top of the daily news?
2. Are you monitoring and engaging in the social sphere on issues of importance to you? If not, how can you use the social media tools you are comfortable with to maximum extent?
3. What can you say and what can you spend? Charities are restricted in how they can talk about politics and advocacy. Third-party advertising is severely restricted in Canada. Are you in compliance with the law?
4. Can watching the leader’s daily agendas help you find news stories to get into – media will be looking for a lot of unique voices with stories to tell in the next 34 days – are you ready to tell your story?
5. Who is communicating your main message, and how are they doing it?

The communications self-audit exercise

download as PDF worksheet

• Take a moment and decide on the one thing your organization really and truly wants to say. Now write it as a short phrase at the top of a page.
• At the bottom of the page identify the three most likely audiences you want to communicate the message with (seniors, youth, Ottawa-Centre residents, GLTBTQ, etc…)
• Now for the most important part – the how – in the centre of the page list all the ways you are communicating right now. ALL of them (web, earned media, twitter, newsletter, phone calls…).
• As a final step: connect with dotted lines the “main message” all the way to the bottom section “audiences” on ONLY through the tools that are working.

As the MediaStyle video team supported the iPolitics.ca journalists with production for Budget Day 2011 gathering stakeholder responses. Justin Van Leeuwen, one of Ottawa’s fastest up and coming photographers took on a unique project for iPolitics in the foyer of the House of Commons. This is over seven hours of media activity and hubbub on the afternoon that set us towards Canada’s 41st election (likely now May 2nd).