Andrew Cash has been a performer all his life and he is looking for a new stage. A punk rocker, an urban activist and ambassador for culture. He is also a fiercely proud Canadian. Motivated by his love of the arts and his city he is trying to break a 50 year Liberal run in a Toronto riding.

If the new NDP candidate for Davenport sounds a lot like another well-known musician-turned-MP; well you would be right – Cash could be considered the urban version of Charlie Angus (MP from Timmins). Many will know they shared a stage for a number of years in the band L’Étranger.

Nominated Monday night and endorsed already by Canadian rock-elite like the Tragically Hip’s Gordon Downie who wrote in part;

“I am thrilled, if hardly surprised, that Andrew Cash is entering Public Service. I say; ‘what took you so long?’ Those who know Andrew might say he was born to do this…I heartily endorse the candidacy of Andrew Cash and I appreciate this opportunity to crow his virtues and applaud his intent.”

Cash described the nomination evening (and its’ several live acts) “just like a gig, but with a tie.”

Now that the bands have stopped playing, it’s time to hit the door step. And, the inevitable question comes: Can Andrew Cash and the NDP really win Davenport?

Analysis: Can he win in Toronto?

Short take: Davenport has been a tough riding for New Democrats. Like in most of Toronto’s ridings the Liberal brand is extremely strong, but in Davenport a growing core “creative class” demographic are reporting a limited understanding of what “Liberals” stand for these days. Cash could break the 50+ year Liberal lock on the riding.

The Opponent

Let’s face it. This is an uphill battle. It’s the strength of “Liberal red” – and not because of the incumbent: Cash is running up against Mario Silva.  Silva came to hold the riding during some inauspicious times for hard-left Liberals. The late MP Charles Caccia was summarily dumped from “the Martin Team” and Silva ran in his place. he hasn’t made much of an impact.

Silva is rather nondescript MP. A back bencher with middle of the road politics. “Milquetoast Mario” I’ve heard him called by his fellow partisans. Not a strong speaker, and in my observation a weak debater and parliamentarian.

A sleeper issue?

Like the Parkdale High Park riding proved; sleeper issues combined with online activists can be a powerful factor in Toronto races. Linda Diebel of the Toronto Star is one of the first mainstream journalists to pick up on a brewing problem for Toronto Liberals in her post titled: Scott Brison: Say it isn’t so.

While her focus was on Brison and his contention that “paramilitary groups have been disbanded in Colombia…” and  “…To say that paramilitary forces are murdering union leaders today is false.” (both egregiously erroneous assertions) A bit of digging shows Silva is using the similar lines as his caucus colleague. He supports the Uribe government and the Free Trade Agreement Colombia.

It becomes clear reading Silva’s exchange at committee with visiting union leaders from Colombia, they are clearly less than enamored with Silva and his experience in their country. In this back-and-forth between Silva and a Colombian human rights activist Yessika Hoyos Morales, Silva suggests President Uribe has a “80 percent approval rating” and that Colombia is safer than ever. Morales then sets the record straight, refuting Silva on every one of his claims.

Mario Silva exchange re: Colombia today

And, for his support for the current regime in Colombia, Silva has run afoul of human rights activists for his support of the Conservative Colombian free trade deal.

So, while it’s a good thing the Colombian union movement doesn’t vote in Davenport – they have motivated friends who do. Like the copyright issues in the Peggy-Nash-Parkdale-win – could Colombia/human rights be a sleeper issue in Davenport?

The Chances

Admittedly I’m biased, I believe Cash should be in the House of Commons. His voice is louder, stronger and more articulate on a much larger set of issues than his opponent.

As objectively as I could I’ve reviewed the riding history, issues, polls, select media articles and results from the past three elections. The electoral math requires at least 5000 Liberal votes to move to Cash and a strong showing from proven NDP voters.

I’ll write more on the electoral math and political communications in Toronto as the election – whenever it might be – gets closer.

Full disclosure: I’m happy to provide informal advice to Andrew Cash and his team as a volunteer advisor. In short, Cash calls when he wants a second “spin doctors”  opinion. As you might have guessed, NDP MP Charlie Angus connected us.