NDP depends on TPP announcement

By Ian Capstick · October 5, 2015

The Media Narrative

The media’s attention is divided between the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the NDP today.

Ironically, the party likely hoping most for a final deal isn’t the Conservatives, it’s the NDP. They need an issue to get their campaign back into the minds of Canadians. The ongoing orange slip in the Nanos daily tracking poll is becoming a major part of the media narrative and the NDP campaign team will be looking to ratchet up the TPP as the focus of much of their attack on the LPC and CPC, which are in lockstep on the agreement.

There are two clear reasons for the NDP’s so-called slip in the polls. First, the NDP vote is softening in Quebec as undecided voters move to the BQ and the CPC. Second, in Ontario the NDP continue to face massive brand challenges and is facing a stagnation, with undecideds moving to the CPC and LPC.

The LPC has run a nearly flawless campaign to date, with their leader only making the smallest of gaffes. Their campaign infrastructure is also remarkably better than the previous Dion and Ignatieff campaigns. The strong embrace of Ontario’s popular and populist premier early in the campaign was smart and lent credibility and gravitas to Trudeau in the province. Yesterday’s rally with 7000 cheering fans in Brampton will provide momentum visuals for the media this entire week.

Depending on the polls you’re looking at, the Conservative vote is holding steady or growing. The real question is whether Harper can find the 170 seats he needs for a majority. It’s inching closer and closer.

Now, back to the TPP. We should have had an announcement of a deal or delay by now, but ministers hunkered down for an additional 72 hours of negotiations and will emerge this morning.

I have a feeling this is a little like groundhog day for the NDP war room. If the TPP sees it’s shadow this AM, the NDP have six days to take advantage of it. After that there will be no moving the national polls.

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